Various signs show that China's economy has entered the "new normal". Although the economic growth rate is still in the leading position among emerging economies, the growth rate has begun to decline year by year. In 2014, China's economic growth was 7.4%, the lowest in 24 years. Affected by this, will the prosperity of China's lighting industry continue to go up or down in 2015? Let's go and have a look.
In 2015, the real estate turmoil accelerated the industry reshuffle?
Some real estate practitioners predict that from 2015, the next three years will be the adjustment period of the real estate market pattern. After adjustment, real estate may usher in a new pattern. So, in 2015, will the real estate industry speed up the reshuffle? What impact will it bring to the lighting industry?
Zou Hui, director of marketing department of Suntory: affected by the pressure of "destocking", the real estate market in the first and second tier cities will not recover substantially in 2015, and the supply and demand structure of the real estate market will not change substantially. There is no doubt that with the acceleration of urbanization in the third and fourth tier cities, the real estate market in the third and fourth tier cities begins to shuffle, and the development of the real estate market grows steadily. For the lighting industry, this will be a huge cake. Therefore, the competition for channels of lighting enterprises will be more and more fierce.
Sun Rijiang, director of domestic trade department of maglan lighting: the lighting industry has entered the LED era. After several years of introduction and replacement, there is no doubt that it has entered the stage of low growth or negative growth. As a related industry of the real estate industry, in 2015, if the new national real estate policy can not quickly change the current situation, the lighting industry will enter an irritating "adhesive period" or "ice age".
In 2015, the lighting industry entered the pattern of "oligopoly competition"?
With the announcement of AQSIQ that 3C certification examination of LED lighting products will be enforced from September 1, 2015, it is undoubtedly "worse" for lighting enterprises that fantasize about opening the market situation by relying on low price and low quality. Will more and more severe market competition make the lighting industry enter the pattern of "oligopoly competition" ahead of schedule in 2015?
Lin Jiliang, general manager of MuLinSen Marketing Center: in 2015, the biggest change in the lighting industry is flattening. The three traditional lighting enterprises and even more enterprises in China will become more flattened in 2015. In fact, there are no dominant or monopolistic oligopoly brands in the semiconductor lighting era. The semiconductor era gives the lighting industry more possibilities, which means that it is unlikely to form an oligopoly, but should be diversified.
Li Quan, manager of Sanxiong Aurora brand management center: it is impossible for China's lighting industry to form a real "Oligarchic Competition" pattern in 2015 or even for quite a long time. Because the threshold of lighting industry is not high, and the Chinese market is very large, the demand level is many, and the purchase mode is complex, enterprises, large or small, have suitable market opportunities. However, in the next few years, the number of enterprises will gradually decrease, and a few large enterprises will expand rapidly, have a stronger leading position, and have a greater voice, which is an inevitable trend.
"Matthew effect" of lighting industry has appeared?
"Matthew effect" refers to a phenomenon that the stronger the strong, the weaker the weak, the better the good, the worse the bad, the more the more, the less the less. It is contrary to the "balance" and has similarities with the "28 law". So, in 2015, when the economy enters the new normal, will there be a "Matthew effect" in the lighting industry?
Chen Wenji, director of LED Business Department of Foshan Lighting: in 2015, the reshuffle of lighting industry will accelerate, and 20% of enterprises will go bankrupt in this wave of reshuffle. At the same time, the lighting industry will appear the situation of "the big is Evergrande, the strong is Evergrande". In the "brand pyramid" of the industry, several enterprises at the "top" will be more powerful, medium-sized enterprises at the "body" will have drastic changes, and small enterprises at the "base" will choose survival first and development second.
Liu Kefeng, vice president of Jiawei Co., Ltd. and pinshang lighting: in 2015, new technologies, new business models and new business opportunities are equal for all lighting enterprises. The key is how to grasp them. In 2015, the competition in the field of large circulation became white hot, and the decline of product prices slowed down. Under this background, some excellent enterprises will emerge in the industry.
Luo Quanxing, executive vice president of Shanghai Lvyuan: from 2015 to the next few years, the number of lighting enterprises will gradually decrease sharply, and the scale of a few large enterprises will expand rapidly, resulting in the situation of "the strong are stronger".
Concluding remarks
"Confidence is more important than gold". What is the prosperity of lighting industry in 2015? It's still in dispute. On the whole, the steady upward trend of the lighting industry will be irreversible; however, for individual lighting enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, the sense of cold winter in the market will be even worse than before, and the discourse power of the market will still be handed over to those powerful enterprises.